ANÁLISE: Como a América Latina se prepara para enfrentar um novo mandato de Maduro?

Grupo de Lima desconhece governo e debate rompimento com a Venezuela enquanto presidente fortalece laços com Rússia e Turquia.

Por Sandra Cohen, G1 (Foto: Marco Bello/Reuters)

27/12/2018 12h00  Atualizado há 19 minutos

Duas posses antagônicas — a de Jair Bolsonaro, no Brasil, e a de Nicolás Maduro, para mais um mandato na Venezuela — mobilizam a América Latina e fazem mover as peças do tabuleiro político da região neste início de 2019. Para começar, a reeleição de Maduro é questionada por 14 países que integram o Grupo de Lima, que, em reunião no dia 4, tendem a marcar a posição de não reconhecer o novo governo.

Criado em 2017 para tentar uma solução pacífica para a crise venezuelana após os protestos que resultaram em 125 mortes, o Grupo de Lima não reconheceu a vitória do presidente, em maio passado, e retirou seus embaixadores do país. Antes de Maduro iniciar seu novo mandato, no próximo dia 10, o organismo pretende romper relações com ele.

O presidente colombiano, Iván Duque, para quem a Venezuela enfrenta uma ditadura esmagadora, está na dianteira da ala que defende o encerramento de embaixadas, embora em seu país vivam atualmente cinco milhões de venezuelanos.

O convite-desconvite de Maduro para a posse de Jair Bolsonaro também deixou claro que as relações com o novo governo brasileiro azedaram de vez, sem sequer terem existido. Alinhado com os EUA de Trump, o presidente eleito do Brasil avisou que fará oposição ferrenha ao eixo Venezuela-Cuba.

Se por um lado, Bolsonaro e Duque, ao lado de Argentina, Chile e Peru, advogam por mais pressão contra Maduro; por outro, o novo presidente do México, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, que também integra o Grupo de Lima, ameniza o tom e já sinalizou que não romperá relações diplomáticas com a Venezuela.

Estudante protesta em frente a policiais em Caracas, Venezuela, em novembro — Foto: Yuri Cortez/AFP
Estudante protesta em frente a policiais em Caracas, Venezuela, em novembro — Foto: Yuri Cortez/AFP

O presidente venezuelano marcou presença na posse do mexicano, no início deste mês, e foi vaiado, deixando López Obrador na incômoda situação de ter que defender o indefensável.

Ao assumir a presidência temporária do Mercosul, o argentino Mauricio Macri pediu a seus sócios de Brasil, Uruguai e Paraguai para atuarem pela restituição da democracia na Venezuela e contra a “ditadura fraudulenta” protagonizada por Maduro.

Mas até que ponto o rompimento com o governo amenizará o drama da população dentro e fora da Venezuela? É este o dilema que os países da região enfrentam desde que Maduro assumiu, gradativamente, o controle das principais instituições do país, como o Legislativo, o Judiciário e as Forças Armadas.

Segundo a Brookings Institution, em um ano o número de exilados venezuelanos no mundo poderia chegar a 8 milhões, mais do que o dobro dos que já fugiram até agora do regime. E, enquanto a crise humanitária se agrava, Maduro expande seus tentáculos, fortalecendo laços com países fora do continente americano, como Turquia, China e Rússia, numa clara demonstração de que há mais jogadores para garantir a sua sobrevivência.

Sandra Cohen — Foto: Arte/G1
Sandra Cohen — Foto: Arte/G1


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